Old man winter is slowly, but inevitably arriving to NYC.
You know it's cold when your chin starts freezing.
Last night, when walking home from Central Park, the 40 MPH winds and below  freezing temperatures made my face and chin feel they were turning to  ice.
They didn't of course.
But, what will surely turn to ice soon are the lakes and ponds of Central  Park -- including Harlem Meer.
That won't happen before the New Year as temperatures are supposed to rise  over the next few days.
But, next week it is projected that an "arctic front" will arrive to NYC  and temperatures will fall to the teens and low twenties for at least a few  days.
That will freeze over most of the smaller watercourses.
There is no doubt that Brad, the Rouen duck of the Meer is very well  prepared for the lake freezing over and the challenges of winter. 
Brad has obviously been through this movie before. 
Over the past few weeks, he has been stuffing his belly with sunflower  seeds and formed necessary alliance with the other two flightless ducks at the  Meer whose help will be required to keep open water.
The question is, will Piggly and Wiggly be prepared for a frozen  lake?   And will they even know how to help Brad maintain open  water?  (That requires almost constant dunking and diving in a  shrinking pool.)
So far, I have seen neither of these barnyard ducks "dive or dunk" in the  water, though Brad has been doing a lot of that over the past few  weeks.   
Brad has also been diligently  practicing "wing flapping."   Though his wings are clipped (rendering him unable to take flight), Brad is  actually able to fly a couple of feet off the ground. That will be  necessary to help navigate the lake when parts of it are  frozen.   
I don't see Piggly or Wiggly flapping their clipped wings at all.
The speculation is that Piggly and Wiggly have a great deal of  "learning" to do over these next few weeks -- through they have a great teacher  and leader in Brad.  And at least both birds now appear to be a very  much stronger and plumper than when first discovered at the Meer a few  months ago.  
Though Brad recognizes that he doesn't have a great deal of "smarts" and  experience to work with, Piggly and Wiggly are obviously better than  nothing.
For sure, most of the mallards and geese won't hang around long when the  lake turns into a solid block of ice.
Presently, (as noted) there are many geese and all breeds of ducks  "loafing" at the unfrozen Meer.
But, like Brad, almost all the geese (and some of the  ducks) recognize the need right now to seriously practice their  diving, dunking and other survival skills.
It was quite amusing the other day to note most of the geese diving under  the water in what appeared to be an entertaining "synchronized swimming" event  worthy of Olympic competition.
But, it is actually serious business in terms of finding food in winter and  maintaining open water.
Other gaggles of geese were peacefully grazing on the grass on a rainy  day that otherwise discouraged many people from walking through the park.
(I shot this video of the lazy, happy scene from the other day:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlXxZO_nChs )
But, if and when the lake freezes over, presumably the migratory geese will  continue on their migration routes south and many of the resident geese will  simply hop over to the Reservoir -- which is the one watercourse in CP that  usually maintains a fairly large pool of open water in the winter.
I am guessing, (but of course cannot be certain) that Buster and his rag  tag gaggle of six geese might elect to stay at the Meer as long as  possible.  
That is because he and I have become such good buddies.
What should I ever do, after all, without Buster's loud, honky  greeting every night that directs me where to go?  And how could I  ever find my way out of Harlem Meer without Buster and "Braggly" (i.e.  Brad, Piggly and Wiggly) showing me the way?
Jokes aside, I believe that Buster is simply one of the original  resident geese of Harlem Meer and like Brad, is probably quite familiar  with how to survive well even if the lake freezes over.   (Either  that, or I have just become spoiled with Buster's greetings and direction each  night and am guilty of "wishful thinking.")
I hope Buster and at least a few of the geese and mallards stay for  practical reasons as well as selfish ones.  The more waterfowl on the  lake, the better the chances of keeping a small pool of open water and obviously  the easier on Brad.  (I am just not that confident about the survival  skills of Piggly and Wiggly. More likely than not, Piggly and  Wiggly will sit helplessly on the frozen ice and watch Brad do almost  all the work! -- But, at least they serve for companionship and  "hierarchy!")
Yes, "Old Man Winter" is on his way.
And while not every bird or creature of nature might be as prepared for it  as Brad and virtually all the geese are, I am confident that with strong  leadership and organization, most of the animals will survive.
The truly strange irony and recent history of NYC has been, that it is  not the winter that is in fact, the most deadly for the birds of our  parks, but rather the spring and summer.
That is not just true for the geese, but also the domestic ducks  I have known.
It seems they figure out how to deal with the harshness of winter.   
It is the harshness and cruelty of humans, they haven't  quite figured out yet.  -- PCA 
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