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It's hard to believe winter is only one third   over.
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It seems like months we have been dealing with   sub-freezing temperatures, cutting winds and had to don winter gear from gloves,   to boots to scarves and hats.
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Already in New York City, snow fall has surpassed its normal   amounts for the entire winter (25 inches).  At this point, new snow is   falling upon old snow and new ice forming on old ice.
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The Jackie Onassis Reservoir in Central Park is nearly 90%   frozen over -- something that rarely occurs in this normally favorite   wintering watercourse for hundreds of ducks, geese and gulls. 
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At Harlem Meer in Central Park, there is surprisingly   still open water on an otherwise frozen lake.
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But, one suspects some man-made intervention (such as   pumping in of steam or warm water) for that as the Meer was entirely iced   over when it was as balmy as 50 degrees.  Perhaps concern for the   survival of the fish and turtles at the Meer necessitated action to keep   part of the lake open water and allow oxygen to the marine life below.   
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Despite large pools of open water at the Meer, most   of the mallards have vacated as have all but one of the Canada   geese.
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Canada geese have also left the Reservoir (again) over the   past few days.
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Throughout the past month, wintering geese at the Reservoir   have demonstrated a pattern of seemingly knowing in advance when weather and   temperatures are about to plunge south and they generally take off a day or two   beforehand.
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But, I have yet to figure out where the geese and many of   the mallards actually go before the deep freeze or snow storms actually set in.   
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Usually they return to Central Park when temperatures   stabilize to near normal again.
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"Normal" daytime temperature for New York City this time of   year is 38 degrees.
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We have been far below that for most of the month --   even diving to single-digit temperatures (so far) six days in   January.  We hit as low as 4 degrees this month -- a temperature not   experienced in NYC since 2004.
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With such unusually harsh and enduring weather condition, it   has been difficult to predict and speculate waterfowl behavior.    Normally for example, the wintering geese stay at the Reservoir until   about mid February and then take off for their normal warm weather   habitats. 
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But, as noted the geese have been flying about this   winter (here one day and gone the next) and it is impossible to know at   this point if the geese will even return -- though guess is that they   will. 
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Temperature by the end of next week is predicted to warm up to   freezing -- 32 degrees.
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In experiencing this unusually bitter winter in New York City   (and throughout most of the country) I can only be eternally grateful that the   "fab four" domestic ducks were rescued from Harlem Meer just days before the   first deep freeze and first snow storm arrived.
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Its highly unlikely the flightless domestics would have   survived -- especially when the Meer was entirely iced over for more than a week   and abandoned by all the waterfowl. 
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The big chill in NYC has also been a very long chill   this winter. 
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Hard to believe it is only 1/3 over. -- PCA
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